It seems as though Texas isn't content to sit around waiting for Cliff Lee to make his decision. Rumors abound that the Rangers have moved forward from informal discussions and are now in serious negotiation with the Kansas City Royals for 2009 Cy Young winner Zack Greinke.
Rangers top outfield prospect, Engel Beltre, is the name rumored to be most frequently mentioned in the talks, although it is assumed that Texas would also have to part with at least one top pitching prospect (either Tanner Scheppers or Martin Perez) as well as a couple of second tier prospects.
The Royals truly hold all the cards in any deal involving Greinke as they have him under contract through 2012. This allows them the luxury of asking for the moon. Greinke, meanwhile has expressed an interest in moving on, having grown tired of Kansas City's constant state of rebuilding of a franchise that has not seen the playoffs since 1985. The 26-year old pitching ace has averaged 217 innings pitched and a 3.25 ERA over the last three seasons with the perpetually awful Royals.
Make no mistake about it, adding Greinke to the Rangers rotation (with or without Cliff Lee) makes them one of the stronger pitching staffs in the AL, possibly only behind New York (should they end up with Lee) and Oakland. If Lee were to re-sign on top of the Greinke deal (something Texas has said is completely within their budget), Texas would head into 2011 as the team to beat in the AL. A rotation of Lee, Greinke, CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis & Tommy Hunter would look pretty formidable, especially after the way Lewis looked in pressure situations throughout the playoffs.
With all this said, I simply don't know how I feel about giving up possibly 3 of the top 5 or 6 prospects in the entire farm system. Engel Beltre took a big step last season in Frisco, playing an awesome center field while finally finding his hitting stroke. He still swings at too many bad pitches, still relies too much on pure speed rather than smart base-running, and is still probably 2 years away from the majors, but the talent is right there in front of your face.
As for Tanner Scheppers, I believe he's one of those guys who will be a stud. He's going to start the season in AAA, but could find his way to the majors midway through the season. He's got a huge arm, great control and poise. To me, he might be the one untouchable prospect in the farm system.
Martin Perez took a big step back last year in Frisco and has continued to show extreme control problems during Winter League play. He's still very young at just 19 years of age, and his arm is fantastic. However, he's at least 2 years away (maybe three) from making a move to the big club. To me, despite his huge upside, I'd feel more comfortable parting with him over Scheppers.
Finally, if the Royals are serious about moving Greinke, and are asking for 2 (or three) A-tier prospects, I am of the opinion they should be willing to part with another piece as well. The Rangers are in need of an upgrade at the Catching position and the Royals currently have one of the better veteran defensive catchers in Jason Kendall. While Kendall doesn't have a great arm, nor is he going to hit .300 for you the way he did throughout the first ten years of his career, what he will do is provide tough, hard-nosed leadership behind the plate and command the respect of what is still a young pitching staff. If Kansas City were willing to accept a trade of Beltre, Perez & maybe two B-tier prospects like Marcus Lemon, Beau Jones or Kasey Kiker for Zack Greinke and Jason Kendall, that might be something I'd have to think long and hard about.
Zack Greinke and Kendall's combined salary for next season is right around $17.25 million, more than manageable considering the age and talent level of Greinke. If Cliff Lee were to then re-sign, Texas would probably need to look for a cheap option at DH, unless they were able to get Vlad Guerrero re-signed to a 1-year deal in the $6 million range. Baring that, I'd look for them to move Nelson Cruz or Josh Hamilton into the DH role (perhaps splitting the duties between the two All-Stars) while giving Julio Borbon and David Murphy more time in Left and Center field.
